ARGH 2001 Projected Records

I've included two kinds of projected records for each team:

Paper record, based strictly on which team projects to win a particular matchup. This projection is easy to reproduce, but has the disadvantage that too many teams are projected to either win or lose all their games.
Probable record, which is based on the probability the team has to win each of its games. This projection is more accurate overall, but has the disadvantage in that most teams are projected to have records near .500 and in that nobody is ever projected to go unbeaten or winless. This projection might best be used as an over/under for the number of wins the team will have during the season.

All records are calculated after power ratings are known. Conference championship games and bowl games are not included because matchups are not known.

Atlantic Coast Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Florida State	6	10-1	8-3
Georgia Tech	9	11-1	9-3
Clemson	25	7-4	7-4
North Carolina State	39	9-2	6-5
North Carolina	62	4-8	5-7
Maryland	66	6-5	6-5
Wake Forest	71	4-7	5-6
Virginia	74	4-8	5-7
Duke	102	0-11	2-9

The Big East	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Miami, Florida	3	9-2	8-3
Virginia Tech	4	11-0	9-2
Syracuse	32	7-5	6-6
Pittsburgh	36	5-6	6-5
Temple	37	6-5	6-5
Boston College	44	6-5	6-5
West Virginia	60	5-6	5-6
Rutgers	111	3-8	3-8

Big Ten Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Michigan	10	8-3	7-4
Purdue	16	9-2	7-4
Wisconsin	21	9-3	8-4
Michigan State	28	6-5	6-5
Northwestern	31	8-3	7-4
Ohio State	34	6-5	6-5
Illinois	35	6-5	6-5
Minnesota	51	4-7	5-6
Penn State	55	2-9	4-7
Indiana	58	4-7	5-6
Iowa	61	5-6	5-6

Big 12 Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Nebraska	5	12-0	10-2
Kansas State	11	9-2	7-4
Colorado	24	8-4	7-5
Iowa State	70	4-7	5-6
Missouri	75	4-7	5-6
Kansas	81	4-7	4-7

Oklahoma	2	11-1	10-2
Texas	8	10-1	9-2
Texas A&M	26	7-4	7-4
Texas Tech	56	5-6	5-6
Oklahoma State	83	4-7	4-7
Baylor	107	1-10	3-8

Conference USA	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Southern Mississippi	22	8-3	7-4
East Carolina	23	10-1	8-3
Louisville	33	9-3	8-4
UAB	48	8-3	6-5
Texas Christian	59	8-4	6-6
Memphis	78	4-7	5-6
Cincinnati	86	4-7	5-6
Tulane	87	4-8	5-7
Houston	92	3-8	4-7
Army	103	3-8	4-7

MAC	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Marshall	49	9-2	8-3
Ohio	65	6-5	6-5
Akron	91	5-6	5-6
Miami, OH	97	4-8	5-7
Bowling Green	98	3-8	4-7
Kent	117	2-9	3-8
Buffalo	118	0-11	2-9

Toledo	40	10-1	8-3
Western Michigan	53	8-3	7-4
Northern Illinois	76	6-5	6-5
Ball State	94	5-6	5-6
Central Michigan	101	3-8	4-7
Eastern Michigan	109	3-8	4-7

Mountain West Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
San Diego State	50	6-5	7-4
Colorado State	52	7-4	6-5
Brigham Young	64	7-6	7-6
Utah	68	5-6	6-5
UNLV	73	6-5	5-6
New Mexico	80	7-4	6-5
Air Force	95	6-6	5-7
Wyoming	104	1-10	3-8

Pac 10 Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Oregon	13	10-1	7-4
Washington	14	8-3	6-5
Stanford	15	9-2	7-4
Oregon State	19	8-3	7-4
UCLA	20	6-5	6-5
Southern California	42	4-7	5-6
California	43	5-6	5-6
Washington State	45	6-5	5-6
Arizona State	46	5-6	6-5
Arizona	54	4-7	5-6

Southeastern Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Louisiana State	17	7-4	7-4
Mississippi State	18	7-4	7-4
Arkansas	27	7-4	7-4
Alabama	38	7-4	6-5
Auburn	41	6-5	5-6
Mississippi	57	5-6	6-5

Florida	1	11-0	9-2
Tennessee	7	9-2	8-3
Georgia	29	8-3	6-5
South Carolina	30	6-5	6-5
Vanderbilt	69	4-7	5-6
Kentucky	72	2-9	4-7

Sun Belt	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Middle Tennessee State	89	8-3	6-5
Idaho	93	6-5	5-6
New Mexico State	100	5-7	5-7
North Texas	112	2-9	4-7
LA-Monroe	114	3-8	4-7
LA-Lafayette	115	2-9	3-8
Arkansas State	116	4-7	4-7

Western Athletic Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Fresno State	47	9-4	8-5
Rice	63	8-4	7-5
Louisiana Tech	67	5-6	5-6
UTEP	77	6-6	6-6
San Jose State	82	3-9	4-8
Hawaii	84	8-4	7-5
Boise State	85	5-7	5-7
Tulsa	90	5-6	5-6
Southern Methodist	96	2-9	4-7
Nevada	99	2-9	4-7

Independents	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Notre Dame	12	7-4	7-4
Central Florida	79	4-7	5-6
Utah State	88	6-5	5-6
Troy State	105	5-6	4-7
Connecticut	106	4-7	5-6
South Florida	108	5-6	5-6
Navy	113	0-11	2-9

Rankings above are ARGH Power Rankings based on 118 teams or groups of teams. To convert to a pure Division 1-A ranking, subtract 1 if the team in question is ranked 111-118.

Projected out of conference records, by conference

	Paper Record	Probable Record
Pac-10	25-5	20-10
SEC	31-5	27-9
Big Ten	23-11	22-12
Big East	24-9	22-11
Big Twelve	31-8	27-12
ACC	19-11	17-13
Conference USA	26-17	23-20
Mountain West	17-18	17-18
WAC	13-24	16-21
MAC	14-30	17-27
Independents	26-41	28-39
Sun Belt	9-27	10-26

Click here to return to the ARGH Preseason Power Ratings.