ARGH 2002 Projected Records

I've included two kinds of projected records for each team:

Paper record, based strictly on which team projects to win a particular matchup. This projection is easy to reproduce, but has the disadvantage that too many teams are projected to either win or lose all their games.
Probable record, which is based on the probability the team has to win each of its games. This projection is more accurate overall, but has the disadvantage in that most teams are projected to have records near .500 and in that nobody is ever projected to go unbeaten or winless. This projection might best be used as an over/under for the number of wins the team will have during the season.

All records are calculated after power ratings are known. Conference championship games and bowl games are not included because matchups are not known.

Atlantic Coast Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Florida State	4	12-1	9-4
Maryland	26	10-3	8-5
Georgia Tech	38	6-6	7-5
North Carolina State	43	8-5	8-5
Clemson	44	9-3	7-5
North Carolina	53	5-7	6-6
Wake Forest	57	5-7	6-6
Virginia	63	4-9	6-7
Duke	109	1-11	3-9

The Big East	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Miami, Florida	1	12-0	10-2
Boston College	12	10-2	8-4
Virginia Tech	15	9-4	8-5
Syracuse	29	9-3	7-5
Pittsburgh	39	6-6	6-6
Temple	59	5-7	6-6
West Virginia	69	3-9	5-7
Rutgers	94	3-9	4-8

Big Ten Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Michigan	9	12-0	8-4
Illinois	24	8-4	8-4
Ohio State	28	8-5	8-5
Penn State	31	8-4	7-5
Michigan State	33	9-3	8-4
Purdue	41	7-5	7-5
Wisconsin	45	10-3	7-6
Iowa	48	9-3	7-5
Minnesota	56	6-6	6-6
Northwestern	74	5-7	6-6
Indiana	81	2-10	5-7

Big 12 Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Nebraska	6	10-3	9-4
Colorado	10	9-3	8-4
Kansas State	20	10-2	8-4
Iowa State	32	5-8	7-6
Missouri	65	3-9	5-7
Kansas	97	1-11	4-8

Oklahoma	2	12-0	9-3
Texas	3	11-1	9-3
Texas A&M	11	10-2	8-4
Texas Tech	14	9-4	8-5
Oklahoma State	49	5-7	6-6
Baylor	89	3-9	4-8

Conference USA	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Louisville	19	11-1	9-3
Southern Mississippi	35	10-2	8-4
Cincinnati	60	7-6	7-6
Texas Christian	61	6-5	6-5
Memphis	62	5-7	6-6
East Carolina	67	7-5	6-6
UAB	78	6-6	6-6
Tulane	85	6-6	6-6
Houston	110	2-10	3-9
Army	115	2-10	4-8

MAC	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Marshall	34	10-1	8-3
Miami, OH	68	6-6	6-6
Central Florida	76	6-6	6-6
Kent	96	5-7	6-6
Akron	99	4-8	5-7
Ohio	107	4-8	4-8
Buffalo	116	1-11	4-8

Toledo	70	7-5	7-5
Northern Illinois	71	7-5	7-5
Bowling Green	72	9-3	7-5
Western Michigan	83	6-6	6-6
Ball State	86	6-6	6-6
Central Michigan	92	5-7	5-7
Eastern Michigan	117	2-10	4-8

Mountain West Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Utah	50	9-2	7-4
Colorado State	51	7-6	7-6
Brigham Young	54	8-4	7-5
UNLV	75	6-6	6-6
New Mexico	80	6-7	6-7
Air Force	95	3-9	5-7
Wyoming	98	3-9	4-8
San Diego State	103	0-13	4-9

Pac 10 Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Oregon	8	11-1	8-4
Washington	13	9-3	8-4
UCLA	21	10-2	7-5
Southern California	23	7-5	6-6
Oregon State	27	9-3	7-5
Washington State	30	7-5	7-5
Arizona	46	6-6	6-6
Stanford	58	3-8	5-6
Arizona State	66	6-7	6-7
California	87	3-9	4-8

Southeastern Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Louisiana State	17	9-3	8-4
Alabama	18	10-3	8-5
Auburn	22	8-4	7-5
Arkansas	40	6-6	7-5
Mississippi	42	6-6	7-5
Mississippi State	52	4-8	6-6

Tennessee	5	11-1	9-3
Florida	7	9-3	8-4
Georgia	16	8-4	8-4
South Carolina	36	7-5	7-5
Kentucky	88	4-8	4-8
Vanderbilt	104	2-10	3-9

Sun Belt	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
North Texas	73	7-5	6-6
Middle Tennessee State	77	9-3	7-5
Idaho	102	6-6	5-7
New Mexico State	108	2-10	4-8
Arkansas State	112	4-9	5-8
LA-Lafayette	113	1-11	3-9
LA-Monroe	114	3-9	4-8

Western Athletic Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Fresno State	37	9-4	8-5
Boise State	47	11-1	8-4
Louisiana Tech	64	6-6	6-6
Hawaii	82	8-5	7-6
Nevada	90	4-8	5-7
Rice	91	5-6	5-6
UTEP	93	4-8	5-7
San Jose State	100	2-11	4-9
Southern Methodist	105	3-9	4-8
Tulsa	106	3-9	4-8

Independents	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Notre Dame	25	8-4	7-5
South Florida	55	6-5	6-5
Troy State	79	4-7	5-6
Utah State	84	4-7	5-6
Connecticut	101	5-7	5-7
Navy	118	0-12	3-9

Rankings above are ARGH Power Rankings based on 118 teams or groups of teams. To convert to a pure Division 1-A ranking, subtract 1 if the team in question is ranked 111-118.

Projected out of conference records, by conference

	Paper Record	Probable Record
Big Twelve	40-11	36-15
SEC	36-13	32-17
Big East	29-12	26-15
Pac-10	31-9	26-12
Big Ten	40-6	31-15
ACC	24-16	23-17
Conference USA	22-18	21-19
Mountain West	14-28	18-24
Independents	24-39	28-35
WAC	15-27	18-24
MAC	22-33	24-31
Sun Belt	11-32	13-30

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