ARGH 2003 Projected Records

I've included two kinds of projected records for each team:

Paper record, based strictly on which team projects to win a particular matchup. This projection is easy to reproduce, but has the disadvantage that too many teams are projected to either win or lose all their games.
Probable record, which is based on the probability the team has to win each of its games. This projection is more accurate overall, but has the disadvantage in that most teams are projected to have records near .500 and in that nobody is ever projected to go unbeaten or winless. This projection might best be used as an over/under for the number of wins the team will have during the season.

All records are calculated after power ratings are known. Conference championship games and bowl games are not included because matchups are not known.

Atlantic Coast Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Maryland	9	11-1	9-3
Florida State	10	9-3	7-5
Virginia	17	9-3	8-4
North Carolina State	19	9-3	7-5
North Carolina	34	5-7	6-6
Georgia Tech	44	6-6	5-7
Clemson	45	6-6	6-6
Duke	55	4-8	5-7
Wake Forest	59	2-10	5-7

The Big East	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Miami, Florida	2	12-0	10-2
Virginia Tech	6	11-1	9-3
Pittsburgh	20	10-2	8-4
Boston College	41	7-5	7-5
West Virginia	47	5-7	6-6
Syracuse	56	6-6	5-7
Temple	88	2-10	4-8
Rutgers	106	3-9	3-9

Big Ten Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Ohio State	1	12-0	10-2
Michigan	7	11-1	9-3
Purdue	13	10-2	8-4
Iowa	22	8-4	7-5
Wisconsin	25	8-4	7-5
Penn State	30	8-4	7-5
Illinois	32	8-4	7-5
Minnesota	43	7-5	7-5
Michigan State	54	4-8	5-7
Northwestern	71	3-9	4-8
Indiana	76	3-9	4-8

Big 12 Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Kansas State	16	11-2	10-3
Nebraska	26	9-3	8-4
Colorado	33	7-5	6-6
Missouri	37	8-4	7-5
Iowa State	42	5-7	6-6
Kansas	94	4-8	4-8

Oklahoma	3	12-0	9-3
Texas	4	11-1	9-3
Texas A&M	40	5-7	6-6
Texas Tech	29	6-6	6-6
Oklahoma State	35	7-5	8-4
Baylor	101	2-10	3-9

Conference USA	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
South Florida	50	10-1	7-4
Louisville	60	7-5	8-4
Texas Christian	68	9-3	7-5
Southern Mississippi	69	6-6	6-6
Cincinnati	77	7-5	6-6
UAB	79	8-4	6-6
Tulane	84	6-6	6-6
East Carolina	90	2-10	5-7
Memphis	91	4-8	5-7
Houston	99	3-9	5-7
Army	117	0-13	3-10

MAC	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Marshall	64	8-4	7-5
Miami, OH	66	8-4	7-5
Central Florida	67	8-4	7-5
Akron	78	8-4	7-5
Kent	107	2-10	4-8
Ohio	110	2-10	4-8
Buffalo	111	2-10	4-8

Bowling Green	62	9-3	7-5
Toledo	63	8-4	7-5
Northern Illinois	74	7-5	7-5
Western Michigan	95	5-7	5-7
Ball State	96	4-8	5-7
Central Michigan	100	3-9	5-7
Eastern Michigan	112	2-10	4-8

Mountain West Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Colorado State	46	9-3	8-4
Brigham Young	51	8-4	6-6
New Mexico	53	10-2	7-5
Air Force	61	8-4	7-5
Utah	80	4-7	5-6
San Diego State	81	4-8	6-6
UNLV	92	3-9	5-7
Wyoming	102	1-11	4-8

Pac 10 Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Southern California	5	12-0	9-3
Oregon	23	8-4	8-4
Arizona State	27	6-6	7-5
Washington	31	8-4	7-5
Washington State	36	7-5	6-6
UCLA	38	8-4	6-6
Oregon State	39	9-3	7-5
Stanford	48	2-9	5-6
Arizona	65	2-10	4-8
California	73	2-11	4-9

Southeastern Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Arkansas	11	10-2	8-4
Auburn	12	8-4	8-4
Louisiana State	15	11-1	8-4
Alabama	24	8-5	7-6
Mississippi	28	8-4	7-5
Mississippi State	58	4-8	5-7

Georgia	8	10-2	9-3
Tennessee	18	8-4	8-4
Florida	21	7-5	7-5
South Carolina	57	4-8	5-7
Kentucky	72	5-7	5-7
Vanderbilt	87	2-10	4-8

Sun Belt	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
North Texas	75	9-3	7-5
Middle Tennessee State	85	8-4	6-6
New Mexico State	89	6-6	6-6
Utah State	103	5-7	4-8
Arkansas State	105	5-7	5-7
LA-Monroe	109	4-8	5-7
Idaho	114	1-11	4-8
LA-Lafayette	116	2-10	3-9

Western Athletic Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Fresno State	49	9-4	8-5
Boise State	52	9-4	9-4
Hawaii	70	10-3	8-5
Louisiana Tech	82	5-7	6-6
San Jose State	86	6-5	5-6
Nevada	93	6-6	6-6
Southern Methodist	97	3-9	5-7
Rice	104	3-9	4-8
UTEP	113	3-10	4-9
Tulsa	115	1-11	3-9

Independents	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Notre Dame	14	8-4	7-5
Troy State	98	3-9	4-8
Connecticut	83	8-4	6-6
Navy	108	5-7	5-7

Rankings above are ARGH Power Rankings based on Division 1-A teams only.

Projected out of conference records, by conference

	Paper Record	Probable Record
ACC	25-11	23-13
Big Ten	38-6	31-13
SEC	37-12	34-15
Big Twelve	39-10	35-14
Pac-10	24-16	23-17
Big East	28-12	24-16
Mountain West	19-20	20-19
Independents	23-23	22-24
Conference USA	18-26	20-24
MAC	20-36	23-33
WAC	15-28	17-26
Sun Belt	15-31	15-31

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