ARGH 1999 Projected Records

I've included two kinds of projected records for each team:

Paper record, based strictly on which team projects to win a particular matchup. This projection is easy to reproduce, but has the disadvantage that too many teams are projected to either win or lose all their games.
Probable record, which is based on the probability the team has to win each of its games. This projection is more accurate overall, but has the disadvantage in that most teams are projected to have records near .500 and in that nobody is ever projected to go unbeaten or winless. This projection might best be used as an over/under for the number of wins the team will have during the season.

All records are calculated after power ratings are known. Conference championship games and bowl games are not included because matchups are not known.

Atlantic Coast Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Florida State	1	11-0	10-1
Georgia Tech	20	9-2	7-4
Virginia	22	10-1	7-4
North Carolina State	37	8-4	7-5
North Carolina	43	6-5	6-5
Duke	61	5-6	5-6
Maryland	78	3-8	5-6
Wake Forest	84	5-6	4-7
Clemson	88	0-11	3-8

The Big East	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Miami, Florida	18	8-4	8-4
Virginia Tech	19	10-1	8-3
Syracuse	27	8-3	7-4
West Virginia	45	8-3	7-4
Boston College	81	3-8	4-7
Rutgers	91	4-7	4-7
Pittsburgh	92	3-8	4-7
Temple	107	0-11	2-9

Big Ten Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Ohio State	3	10-2	9-3
Penn State	4	12-0	9-3
Michigan	7	9-2	7-4
Wisconsin	10	9-2	8-3
Purdue	11	8-3	7-4
Michigan State	16	6-5	6-5
Minnesota	41	7-4	6-5
Indiana	44	6-5	6-5
Iowa	70	3-8	4-7
Illinois	84	2-9	3-8
Northwestern	86	0-11	3-8

Big 12 Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Texas A&M	5	10-1	9-2
Nebraska	6	11-0	9-2
Kansas State	22	10-1	8-3
Colorado	24	8-3	7-4
Texas	30	9-3	7-5
Texas Tech	34	7-4	6-5
Missouri	39	6-5	6-5
Oklahoma State	54	4-7	5-6
Oklahoma	57	5-6	5-6
Kansas	66	5-7	5-7
Baylor	68	3-8	5-6
Iowa State	77	3-8	4-7

Big West	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Idaho	49	7-4	7-4
Nevada	55	9-2	7-4
Utah State	82	5-6	5-6
New Mexico State	89	4-7	5-6
Boise State	94	6-6	6-6
North Texas	99	3-8	4-7
Arkansas State	105	2-9	4-7

Conference USA	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Southern Mississippi	42	7-4	7-4
Tulane	48	8-3	7-4
Louisville	53	10-1	8-3
Houston	60	5-6	6-5
East Carolina	73	3-8	5-6
UAB	74	5-6	5-6
Memphis	79	3-8	4-7
Army	103	1-10	4-7
Cincinnati	106	2-9	3-8

MAC	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Marshall	12	11-0	10-1
Miami, OH	29	9-2	9-2
Western Michigan	62	7-4	7-4
Toledo	63	8-3	7-4
Bowling Green	80	5-6	6-5
Ohio	90	6-5	5-6
Central Michigan	95	5-6	5-6
Eastern Michigan	98	4-7	4-7
Akron	102	3-8	5-6
Ball State	109	2-9	3-8
Northern Illinois	111	3-8	4-7
Kent	114	1-10	2-9
Buffalo	116	0-11	1-10

Mountain West Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Air Force	21	11-0	8-3
Wyoming	47	7-4	7-4
Utah	50	7-4	7-4
Colorado State	52	7-4	6-5
San Diego State	56	6-5	6-5
Brigham Young	59	7-4	6-5
New Mexico	96	4-7	5-6
UNLV	112	0-11	1-10

Pac 10 Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Arizona	9	10-2	9-3
UCLA	13	9-2	7-4
Southern California	15	11-1	8-4
Oregon	32	6-5	6-5
Washington State	35	6-6	7-5
Arizona State	36	5-6	5-6
Washington	38	6-5	5-6
Stanford	40	5-6	5-6
California	65	1-10	4-7
Oregon State	72	3-8	4-7

Southeastern Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Tennessee	2	11-0	9-2
Florida	8	9-2	8-3
Georgia	17	7-4	7-4
Mississippi	23	10-1	7-4
Arkansas	25	7-4	7-4
Louisiana State	26	8-3	7-4
Alabama	28	7-4	6-5
Auburn	46	5-6	5-6
Mississippi State	51	6-5	6-5
Kentucky	58	4-7	5-6
Vanderbilt	71	2-9	4-7
South Carolina	87	3-8	3-8

Western Athletic Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Texas Christian	64	8-3	7-4
Rice	67	6-5	6-5
Fresno State	75	6-6	6-6
Southern Methodist	76	6-5	6-5
Tulsa	85	7-4	5-6
San Jose State	101	2-9	4-7
UTEP	104	3-9	4-8
Hawaii	113	1-11	3-9

Independents	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Louisiana Tech	31	7-4	7-4
Notre Dame	33	6-6	7-5
Central Florida	69	5-6	5-6
Navy	93	5-7	5-7
NE Louisiana	97	4-7	4-7
SW Louisiana	108	2-9	3-8
Middle Tennessee State	115	0-11	2-9

Rankings above are ARGH Power Rankings based on 116 teams or groups of teams. To convert to a pure Division 1-A ranking, subtract 1 if the team in question is ranked 101-109; subtract 2 if the team in question is ranked 111 or higher.

Projected out of conference records, by conference

	Paper Record	Probable Record
Big Ten	28-7	25-10
SEC	31-5	26-10
Pac-10	22-11	21-12
Big Twelve	33-5	28-10
ACC	21-7	18-10
Big East	17-18	18-17
Mountain West	20-12	18-14
Conference USA	17-28	21-24
Independents	20-41	24-37
Big West	16-22	17-21
WAC	11-24	13-22
MAC	12-27	15-24

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