Available ratings:
The latest daily ARGH College Basketball Power Ratings and Predictions. These will be updated when possible, which essentially means when the database has been updated and I'm not on the road.
Features of the ARGH College Basketball Power Ratings:
Home court advantage is included in both the ratings and the predictions beginning with the week of January 14, 2002.
Predictions. I'll be posting predictions on the daily page. If the daily page is not up to date, you should still be able to figure out who should win a game at a neutral site between two listed teams and what the winning probability is by using the following formula, which is the same as the football rating system uses:
p(team wins)=P(Team)*Q(Opponent)*P(HCA)/(P(Team)*Q(Opponent)*P(HCA)+Q(Team)*P(Opponent)*Q(HCA))where P(Team) is the team's power rating, P(Opponent) is the opposing team's power rating, P(HCA) is the home court advantage, and Q(Anything) is 1 - P(Anything). However, in order to be able to use these power ratings to predict pointspreads, another factor is needed: an estimated total number of points to be scored (see below).
If you wish to receive an ARGH prediction for any game, please e-mail me.
Totals are now up, as of February 28, 2001.
Preseason seeding is not available, which means that these power ratings will be released beginning in January and that they will be more retrodictive in nature than the football ratings. It will be at least two years until I can get a decent feel on how to seed teams in the preseason (which may not stop me...) -- if I can even expand the spreadsheet enough to allow for inclusion of such factors.
Finally, a note about data: the data used in these power ratings comes from Ken Pomeroy's database, and I heartily thank him for the work he does. Data is included for all Division 1 teams in 2005, including provisional members North Dakota State and South Dakota State, and all games, including games against non-D1 members are taken into account. I'll try to make sure that the data is as good as possible, but the sheer bulk of data required for college basketball ratings makes it impossible to check the data as closely as is easily done in football.
These ratings will be updated at least weekly during the remainder of the season.
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